A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
